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Concept information

phenomenon > memory phenomenon > hindsight bias

Preferred term

hindsight bias  

Definition

  • « the belief that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. » (Roese et Vohs, 2012, p. 411).

Broader concept

Synonym(s)

  • creeping determinism
  • knew-it-all-along effect

Belongs to group

Bibliographic citation(s)

  • • Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288–299. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288

    • Document type: empirical study

    • Access: closed

  • • Fischhoff, B. (2025). Fifty years of hindsight bias research—Reflection on Fischhoff (1975). Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 51(2), 143–150. https://doi.org/10.1037/xhp0001232

    • Document type: literature review

    • Access: open

  • • Pohl, R. F., & Erdfelder, E. (2022). Hindsight bias. In R. F. Pohl (Ed.), Cognitive illusions: Intriguing phenomena in thinking, judgement, and memory (3rd ed., pp. 436–454). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003154730-31

    • Document type: literature review

    • Access: closed

  • • Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D. (2012). Hindsight bias. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7(5), 411–426. https://doi.org/10.1177/174569161245430

    • Document type: literature review

    • Access: closed

Creator

  • Frank Arnould

In other languages

URI

http://data.loterre.fr/ark:/67375/P66-CL66PL13-3

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